House the market? Scherb Homes Group - October 2026
South Bay Buyer & Seller Real Estate Market Report
What buyers and sellers should know right now in Rolling Hills, Manhattan Beach, Hermosa Beach, Palos Verdes, Hollywood Riviera, Redondo Beach, Torrance and San Pedro.
Hello, Scherb Homes family —
October is here, although the South Bay weather apparently did not get the memo. We have been busy with soccer season, getting to the pool and beach when we can, and trying to stay outside and active through this unusually hot and humid Indian summer.
At home, we are planning our East Coast fall trip to visit family and Clover’s cousins while also gearing up for Halloween, which is always a spooky and fun time of year around our house.
I have also been keeping up with my Friday morning walk-run group here in Palos Verdes. If anyone ever wants to join us, please reach out. It is a great way to get outside, get moving and start a Friday morning.
On the real estate side, this continues to be one of the more interesting markets we have had in a while. The biggest thing I want you to know is that there really is no single “South Bay real estate market” right now.
Some neighborhoods have very little inventory and strong competition. A few miles away, buyers may have substantially more choices and negotiating leverage. Even within the same city, the best home on a great street can behave completely differently from a property that is overpriced, dated or compromised.
That distinction is really the story of this month’s South Bay real estate report.
The detailed city reports below are generally organized from our highest-priced markets toward the lower-priced markets: Rolling Hills, Manhattan Beach, Hermosa Beach, Palos Verdes Estates, Rolling Hills Estates, Rancho Palos Verdes, Hollywood Riviera, Redondo Beach and Torrance. I have also included San Pedro as an additional market at the end.
Cliff’s Notes: Three Things to Know Right Now
South Bay Market Snapshot
At roughly 3.5 months of inventory, I would characterize the broader South Bay as relatively balanced. It is neither a broad seller’s market where everything sells immediately nor a buyer’s market where sellers have lost pricing power. The important part is what is happening underneath that regional number.
A Quick Word About Mortgage Rates
One number I continue watching closely is the spread between the 10-year Treasury and mortgage rates.
Historically, that spread has averaged around 1.7 percentage points. Based on this month’s snapshot, it is approximately 2.28 percentage points.
Why does that matter for South Bay home buyers?
If the spread eventually moves closer to its historical relationship, mortgage rates could improve even without an equally dramatic decline in Treasury yields.
That could help affordability — but there is another side to it. Lower rates could bring more sidelined buyers back into the market.
For buyers, I would not necessarily try to perfectly time interest rates. If rates improve meaningfully, you may get a better rate, but you may also find yourself competing with considerably more buyers.
October 2026 South Bay Real Estate Markets
Here is what I am seeing for buyers and sellers in each of the major markets we follow.
Rolling Hills Real Estate
Rolling Hills remains one of the most unique and supply-constrained markets anywhere in the South Bay. With only 14 active or coming-soon properties in this snapshot, a handful of sales can significantly affect the statistics.
Buyer Cliff’s Note
Rolling Hills requires patience. Fourteen available homes may sound like enough inventory, but those properties can vary enormously in acreage, views, condition, equestrian potential, privacy and location.
The 129-day median market time and 50% price-reduction rate tell me buyers should not be afraid to negotiate. At this price point, sellers may begin with strong expectations, but market time can eventually create an opening.
When the right property does come along, however, scarcity matters. There simply are not many comparable alternatives.
Seller Cliff’s Note
Rolling Hills is a market where the median statistics only tell part of the story. Your acreage, setting, views, improvements, privacy and usability can dramatically affect value.
Half of the current listings have reduced their price. That is an important reminder not to use another seller’s aspirational asking price as the basis for your own valuation.
One-Year Rolling Hills Forecast
My expectation is for modest positive appreciation of approximately 2%–4% over the coming year, assuming rates stabilize and the broader economy remains reasonably healthy. Scarcity should continue supporting values, although luxury buyers are likely to remain selective.
Manhattan Beach Real Estate
Manhattan Beach strengthened somewhat during the past month. Inventory tightened considerably and homes are moving faster, but buyers remain disciplined about value.
Buyer Cliff’s Note
You have fewer choices than you did a month ago. Inventory fell approximately 16%, homes are moving a little faster and fewer sellers are reducing their prices.
But nearly three in ten listings have still reduced their asking price. My advice is to separate the great homes from the simply available homes.
Well-priced properties in desirable locations can move quickly. A compromised or overpriced property can be an entirely different negotiation.
Seller Cliff’s Note
The October numbers improved in sellers’ favor. Inventory declined, median market time fell to 44 days and price reductions decreased.
That does not mean buyers will accept any price. The best strategy remains coming to market correctly positioned from day one. Manhattan Beach buyers are sophisticated and have access to plenty of information. Aspirational pricing can still translate into unnecessary market time and eventual reductions.
One-Year Manhattan Beach Forecast
I expect approximately 3%–6% appreciation over the coming year. Limited land, high household wealth and continued demand should support Manhattan Beach, with the best properties and locations likely to outperform the broader market.
Hermosa Beach Real Estate
Hermosa’s October numbers show what happens when limited inventory meets persistent demand.
Buyer Cliff’s Note
Seventeen homes is not much inventory. That is down from 24 in September, and median market time has fallen from 34 to just 26 days.
You need to be prepared when a good home appears. At the same time, 41% of current listings have reduced their price.
That is an important distinction: scarcity does not automatically make an overpriced home a good buy.
Seller Cliff’s Note
Hermosa remains a strong but price-sensitive market. Inventory is tight, properties are selling faster and values are approximately 6.1% higher than a year ago.
But 41% of listings have still required a reduction. Price, location, condition and presentation remain critical. Limited inventory will help you, but it will not completely protect you from overpricing.
One-Year Hermosa Beach Forecast
I expect approximately 3%–5% appreciation over the next year. Hermosa’s limited housing stock and coastal lifestyle should continue supporting values, particularly if financing conditions improve.
Palos Verdes Estates Real Estate
Palos Verdes Estates had one of the most noticeable month-over-month improvements in this report.
Buyer Cliff’s Note
Inventory tightened from 27 homes in September to 24 in October, and the better-positioned properties are moving considerably faster.
For buyers who have been waiting for the right PVE house, preparation matters. Know your preferred neighborhoods and streets, your acceptable compromises and your financing before the right property appears.
One-third of active listings have still reduced their price, however. Homes that miss the mark on price, condition or location can provide negotiating opportunities.
Seller Cliff’s Note
October looks stronger for Palos Verdes Estates sellers. Inventory declined, median market time improved dramatically to 28 days and values are approximately 3.3% higher than a year ago.
But buyers are still selective. In PVE especially, two homes a few streets apart can have very different values. Neighborhood, street, view, lot, floor plan and condition matter. Pricing should reflect those details rather than relying solely on a citywide price-per-square-foot calculation.
One-Year Palos Verdes Estates Forecast
I expect approximately 2%–4% appreciation during the next year. PVE’s limited turnover, strong schools, neighborhood character and constrained inventory should continue supporting values.
Rolling Hills Estates Real Estate
Rolling Hills Estates currently looks like one of the South Bay’s more balanced markets.
Buyer Cliff’s Note
This feels fairly balanced. Inventory increased slightly from 29 to 31 homes, median market time is 54 days and one in four current listings has reduced its asking price.
That gives buyers room to be thoughtful. Homes that have accumulated market time or require updating may offer opportunities to negotiate.
Seller Cliff’s Note
Values remain approximately 1.7% higher than a year ago, but buyers have enough inventory to compare one property with another.
That makes preparation important. A clean, well-presented home priced correctly can stand out considerably from competing inventory.
One-Year Rolling Hills Estates Forecast
I expect roughly 1%–3% appreciation over the next year. This should remain a relatively balanced market unless declining mortgage rates create a meaningful increase in buyer demand.
Rancho Palos Verdes Real Estate
Rancho Palos Verdes offers buyers considerably more inventory than most of the other Palos Verdes markets.
Buyer Cliff’s Note
RPV is a market where I would be looking carefully for opportunities. There are 113 homes available, and 42% have already reduced their asking price.
Buyers have choices, particularly compared with PVE, Hermosa Beach or Rolling Hills. That does not mean every seller will negotiate, but properties that have accumulated market time deserve a closer look.
Seller Cliff’s Note
Market time improved from 71 to 59 days, which is encouraging, and values remain approximately 1.7% higher year over year.
The challenge is competition. With more than 100 active or coming-soon properties and 42% already taking reductions, buyers can afford to compare. Pricing aggressively above comparable sales can quickly work against you.
One-Year Rancho Palos Verdes Forecast
I expect approximately 1%–3% appreciation over the next 12 months. RPV should remain stable, with results varying considerably by neighborhood, view, condition and property type.
Hollywood Riviera Real Estate
Hollywood Riviera remains highly desirable, but October’s statistics show buyers are pushing back hard when sellers overshoot the market.
Buyer Cliff’s Note
This is one of my favorite examples of why you cannot judge a market simply by inventory.
There are only 15 homes available — which sounds extremely tight — but 53% have already reduced their asking price.
That tells me buyers want to live here, but they still care about value. If a home has been sitting, there may be a conversation worth having.
Seller Cliff’s Note
Values are up approximately 2.4%, and the Riviera remains a highly desirable neighborhood.
But more than half of the current listings have taken a reduction. Do not confuse desirability with unlimited pricing power. Buyers know the neighborhood and comparable sales. Getting the initial price right is especially important.
One-Year Hollywood Riviera Forecast
I expect approximately 2%–4% appreciation over the next year, supported by limited supply and continued demand for the Riviera lifestyle.
Redondo Beach Real Estate
Redondo Beach gives us a very good picture of today’s broader South Bay market: stable values, plenty of demand, but increasingly price-conscious buyers.
Buyer Cliff’s Note
This is a market where I would negotiate. More than half of current listings have already reduced their price. Inventory increased slightly and market time has edged higher.
At the same time, values are still approximately 2.8% higher than last year. In other words, this does not look like a collapsing market. It looks like a normalizing, price-sensitive market — and that can be very healthy for buyers.
Seller Cliff’s Note
The good news is that values remain resilient. The warning is the 53% price-reduction rate.
Buyers have alternatives, and they are clearly rejecting aspirational asking prices. The first few weeks on market should be treated as an opportunity, not as a pricing experiment.
One-Year Redondo Beach Forecast
I expect approximately 2%–4% appreciation over the next year, with South Redondo and especially desirable neighborhoods likely to outperform more commodity-style inventory.
Torrance Real Estate
Torrance continues to show positive appreciation while providing buyers with considerably more inventory than the smaller coastal markets.
Buyer Cliff’s Note
There is plenty to like here. Buyers have 182 active or coming-soon homes to choose from, yet median market time actually improved to 38 days.
That tells me demand remains healthy. You can negotiate on stale or overpriced inventory, but you should not assume a correctly priced home will sit around waiting for you.
Seller Cliff’s Note
Values are approximately 3% higher than a year ago, and homes are moving a little faster.
But with 182 properties available, buyers have alternatives. Preparation, condition and initial pricing remain important. A strong launch can put your property ahead of a relatively large competitive set.
One-Year Torrance Forecast
I expect approximately 2%–4% appreciation over the coming year. Torrance should continue benefiting from its relative affordability compared with neighboring coastal communities.
San Pedro Real Estate
San Pedro remains one of the more price-sensitive — and potentially interesting — markets for buyers looking for relative value in the South Bay and Harbor area.
Buyer Cliff’s Note
San Pedro is worth watching. Inventory increased from 116 to 125 homes, prices are essentially flat year over year and one-third of active listings have reduced their asking price.
That combination gives buyers more options and more negotiating leverage than they have in many of the beach cities.
Seller Cliff’s Note
The improvement in market time — from 56 to 44 days — is encouraging.
But values remain essentially flat and inventory increased. Sellers should be realistic about comparable sales and resist the temptation to price based on what neighboring South Bay cities are doing.
One-Year San Pedro Forecast
My expectation is for a roughly flat to +2% market during the next year. There could certainly be pockets that outperform, but I would remain relatively conservative when forecasting broad appreciation.
What Should Buyers Be Thinking Right Now?
Where I See Opportunity
This is actually a market I like for prepared buyers.
The headlines do not necessarily make it feel that way. Rates remain high, affordability is challenging and some prices remain near records.
But underneath those headlines, I see opportunity.
In several cities, 40%–50% or more of active sellers have already reduced their price. That means there are sellers who started with one expectation and are now confronting the market’s reality.
That is where I want to look for leverage.
Don’t Only Wait for Rates
I would not necessarily wait for the perfect interest rate.
If mortgage rates fall materially, affordability improves — but competition may also increase.
Instead, I would focus on finding the right property at the right basis. Refinancing can always be evaluated later if rates improve.
And remember: the home that has been sitting for 60 days and the great new listing that hit the market yesterday are two completely different negotiations.
Buy the property and the opportunity in front of you — not the national headline. Market time, seller motivation, condition and neighborhood-level supply can matter much more than the citywide average.
What Should Sellers Be Thinking Right Now?
Your First Impression Matters
Your home’s first impression matters more than it did a few years ago.
Across several of our markets, an unusually large percentage of active inventory has already taken a price reduction.
That tells us buyers are paying attention. They are comparing homes, studying comparable sales and waiting when something does not feel appropriately priced.
Good Homes Are Still Selling
That does not mean this is a bad market to sell.
In many neighborhoods, inventory remains limited and values are still appreciating. Great homes are selling.
The difference is that the market is rewarding sellers who prepare properly, present beautifully and price intelligently from day one.
If I were selling in this market, my goal would not be to have the highest asking price in the neighborhood. My goal would be to create the strongest possible market response. Those are two very different strategies.
The Bottom Line for South Bay Real Estate
The South Bay market is not booming, and it is not falling apart.
It is becoming more selective.
The regional median price is essentially unchanged from a year ago, yet individual markets range from roughly flat to more than 6% appreciation.
Some cities have extremely limited inventory while others have more than 100 homes for buyers to choose from. And within the same city, a beautifully updated home on a great street can behave entirely differently from an overpriced home only a few blocks away.
That is why I continue to believe hyperlocal information matters much more than the national real estate headlines.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is the South Bay currently a buyer’s market or a seller’s market?
At approximately 3.5 months of inventory, the broader South Bay looks relatively balanced. However, that regional figure can be misleading. Low-inventory neighborhoods and exceptional homes can still favor sellers, while markets with more inventory, longer market times and frequent price reductions can give buyers meaningful negotiating leverage.
Are South Bay home prices falling in 2026?
Not broadly. The South Bay median sold price in this October snapshot is approximately $1.279 million and essentially flat compared with a year ago. Individual markets vary significantly, however. Manhattan Beach and Hermosa Beach are showing stronger annual gains, while San Pedro is approximately flat.
Where do South Bay buyers have the most negotiating leverage?
Look beyond the citywide headline and pay attention to individual listings. Longer market time, previous price reductions, condition issues, compromised locations and excess competing inventory can all create leverage. In October, several markets have price-reduction rates above 40%, including Rancho Palos Verdes, Hermosa Beach, Hollywood Riviera and Redondo Beach.
Should I wait for mortgage rates to fall before buying a South Bay home?
Not necessarily. Lower rates could improve affordability, but they could also bring more buyers back into the market and increase competition. The better question is whether you can find the right property, negotiate an appropriate purchase price and comfortably manage the financing available today.
What is the biggest mistake South Bay sellers are making right now?
In my view, it is overpricing at launch and assuming limited inventory will eventually force a buyer to accept the price. The high percentage of current listings with price reductions shows that buyers are willing to wait when a property does not represent appropriate value.
How accurate is price per square foot for valuing a South Bay home?
It is useful as one reference point, but it should not be used alone. This is especially true in Palos Verdes, Rolling Hills and the beach cities, where street, view, lot, floor plan, condition, architecture and micro-location can dramatically affect value. A property-specific comparable-market analysis is much more useful than applying a citywide price-per-square-foot number.
What is the one-year outlook for South Bay home prices?
My outlook is generally for modest appreciation rather than a dramatic move in either direction. The individual forecasts in this report range from approximately flat to +6%, depending on the city. Limited housing supply remains supportive, while borrowing costs and buyer price sensitivity should help keep appreciation measured.
Let’s Look at Your Specific South Bay Market
If you are considering selling your home in the next several months, reach out. I would be happy to prepare a detailed home-selling and value report specifically for your property, including recent sales, current competition, buyer demand and what I believe your home could realistically command in today’s market.
If you are considering buying, I am happy to share what is currently available, what I know is coming to market and the private and off-market opportunities I am hearing about before they necessarily appear online.
Market statistics reflect the October 7, 2026 market snapshot used for this report. Real estate conditions can vary substantially by neighborhood, property type, price point and individual home. Forecasts are opinions and estimates, not guarantees of future value or market performance.
